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QM4 - 06.07.2006 Evan Kraft, Croatian National Bank , Croatia Svetla Kostadinova, Institute for Market Economics, Sofia, Bulgaria Jadranka Kaluđerović, Gordana Radojević, Nataša Masoničić, Institute for Strategic Studies and Prognoses (ISSP) , Podgorica, Montenegro Malgožata Markijevič, Center for Economic Analyses, Skopje , Macedonia Laurijan Lungu, Group of Applied Economics, Bucharest, Romania Milojko Arsić, CES Mecon Belgrade, Serbia NEW! Erjon Luçi - Head of Research Department , Bank of Albania , Albania additional text (not available in a print version of the QM4)
In the last few years, the majority of SEE countries faced the accelerating credit expansion. In effort to understand better this phenomenon, FREN invited the scholars from selected SEE countries ( Bulgaria , Montenegro , Croatia , Macedonia , Romania and Serbia ) to analytically describe the history of credit expansion in their countries. The focus of our interest was the monetary policy measures used to counteract the credit expansion and palliate its negative effects. Comparative analysis suggests that all the countries in the region faced similar threats, and that the effectiveness of monetary policy measures applied were limited. In aim to provide reader with most comprehensive comparison, we asked authors to present their work in standardized format.
Download (.pdf) (1.17 MB) Spotlight on: 2 - Trade integration in South East Europe Olivier Lamotte
Southeastern European (SEE) countries have recently engaged in a process of re-integration to the world economy, mainly through the establishment of free trade agreements between themselves and with the European Union (EU). This article shows that such a process will lead to an increase of trade between the EU and the Western Balkans, while it may have a limited impact on intra-SEE trade. From a sectoral point of view, trade between SEE and the EU in agricultural and food products will be affected by the increase of non-tariff barriers, while trade in highest value added goods should be enhanced by foreign direct investments.
Download (.pdf) (278 kB) Jelena Ždrale
The rapid growth of the financial sector in Serbia calls for more light to be shed on the process and its effects. To this end, QM has analyzed the quarterly balance sheets of banks posted on the web page of the National Bank of Serbia. The data shows that the growth of the banking sector is driven by banks which appeared here as greenfield investments back in 2001 or 2002. Moreover, new lending by only three banks in this group accounts for over 50% of the growth of credit activity in the Q4 2003-Q1 2006 period. At the same time and with only one exception, the volume of business of banks that remained in state ownership declined appreciably over the period. Also noteworthy is that foreign ownership of a bank proved to be a stronger magnet for deposits than foreign borrowing.
Download (.pdf) (1.65 MB) 06.07.2006
Download presentation (.ppt) (103 kB) Spotlight 3 : Transformation of Serbia's Banking Sector ... download (.ppt) (78 kB) May 12, 2006
Mapping Serbia's Labor Market is a detailed study presenting the regional distribution of unemployment risk on Serbia’s labor market estimated by building on the methodology used in the development of the National Employment Strategy 2005-2010. The regional exposure to risk is estimated and ranked on the basis of five groups of indicators which are obtained at the regional and municipal levels, and then statistical estimates for the selected regions are checked and compared with the estimates obtained by means of a SWOT analysis with regional stakeholders in charge of employment creation. April 26, 2006
Download presentation from the press conference (.ppt) (91.5 kB) April 26, 2006 
Download presentation (.ppt) (781 kB) April 10, 2006
"Economic growth in Serbia has likely led to a marked reduction in poverty during the last three years. However, economic growth has not as yet been accompanied by an increase in the employment ratio (the proportion of working age population that is employed). With working adults and their families constituting the bulk of the poor, a lack of improvement in the employment ratio has the potential to dampen the impact of growth on poverty reduction in the future. Despite a number of reforms, the business environment continues to be challenging, reflecting in part Serbia's much later start in the transition to a market economy. A continuation of reforms to inject dynamism into the business environment - with a view to permitting the entry of new firms and the exit of obsolete firms - is essential to allow job creation and further economic growth to take place. Job creation can also be aided by relaxation of employment protection legislation and greater decentralization of wage bargaining to the level of firms."
Download presentation (.ppt) (876 kB) March 07, 2006
Foundation for the Advancement of Economics has orginized a visiting lecturing of Mr. Predeep Mitra, The World Bank`s Chief Economist for Europe and Central Asia region, with the topic: Productivity Growth and Job Creation in Eastern Europe and the former Soviet Union. The lecturing took place on Friday, April 7, at the Faculty of Economics in Belgrade with a presence of numerious economic institutions, professors, students and media representatives.
December 29, 2005 One of main FRENs objective, besides analysis and estimations, is to become the principal provider of macroeconomic data of Serbian and regional economies. We provide access to full range of data series, including methodology, definitions and data sources. Establishing the full database on FRENs web site is still in progress. Up to now we make public time series of monetary and external data, from 2000 up to 2005. January 23, 2006
This time around, the inflation in Serbia is a product of good news. As is set out in the current QM issue, it is the result of rapid economic growth, the result, in turn, of increased exports and an influx of capital. We feel more confident of this than in our last issue because of our better knowledge of the what data to trust. However, a more stringent monetary policy and the gradual tightening of fiscal policies have not yet had results. What should be done? Download presentation from the press conference (.ppt) (692KB) November 29, 2005 The Foundation for the Advancement of Economics (FREN) COMPETITION FOR ECONOMIC RESEARCH PROJECT PROPOSAL GRANTS from October 5, 2005. The chosen project proposals and the names of the authors (listed in alphabetical order) have been short-listed
with title, author name, JEL-classification and originaly preposed recusants
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This introductory note as well as a good part of Trends poses more questions than they give answers. Such was the quarter we are reviewing. There have been changes in some trends that appeared to be firmly set in previous quarters, e.g. foreign trade is slowing down, but the new trends are not yet clear. Regarding one thing there is no dilemma - the announced fiscal expansion has begun. It will either accelerate inflation (unless the government resorts to administrative price controls) or halt the growth of production (unless the NBS is successful with its restrictive monetary measures – unlikely). The optimistic result scored in June with inflation was a swallow, but as everyone knows, one swallow does not make spring. 
Viewed from a distance of a few months, the Serbian economy seems to have spent 2005 limbering up for a race. Everything appears to indicate a new surge, and this time it cannot be ascribed to only a few major "culprits." It now appears that the growth is from the roots. 
It's moving and picking up speed may be said of Serbia's economy in the third quarter of 2005. The question must follow: is there a danger of it jumping off the tracks? Our answer is: not for the moment, but there are clear dangers ahead. Our worry is: is the engineman awake?