Quarterly Monitor of Economic Trends and Policies in Serbia, October-December 2007

When the macroeconomic trends broken down to economic growth, inflation and current account of the balance of payments over the whole of 2007 are observed, the impressions for each of the items are quite different. GDP growth was very high (7.2%), which is certainly good news. Total inflation was in the double digits (10.1%), but core inflation (5.4%) remained within the NBS band of 4% to 8%; hence the assessment of the achieved result is neutral. The current account deficit is the Serbian economy's most grievous problem, and 2007 saw it worsen further to an annual 16.7% of GDP.

The start of 2008 augurs a period of political instability for Serbia, which could negatively impact economic movements and policies. Relations with the EU and USA have deteriorated over their recognition of Kosovo's declaration of independence, and the process of integration with the EU has been stalled. The governing coalition appears to be weak, which makes it vulnerable to populist pressures in economic policy. Elections are coming up, local in May and, possibly, parliamentary later in the year, and this too creates a climate conducive to economic populism. All this could significantly aggravate the economic situation in the country.

Quarterly Montor, complete document, download (.pdf) (9.98 MB):

Quarterly Monitor by the chapters, download:

Impressum, Table of Contents (.pdf) (121 kb).

From the Editor (.pdf) (241 kb).

Trends Review (.pdf) (268 kb).

Trends - International Environment (.pdf) (229 kb).

Trends - Prices Exchange Rate (.pdf) (931 kB).

Trends - Employment Wages (.pdf) (565 kB).

Trends - Economic Activity (.pdf) (695 kB).

Trends - BOP & Foreign Trade (.pdf) (1 MB).

Trends - Fiscal Flows & Policy (.pdf) (591 kB).

Trends - Monetary Flows & Policy (.pdf) (778 kB).

Trends - Financial Markets (.pdf) (1.3 MB).

Spotlight on 1 - Power and Weakness of Monetary Policy (.pdf) (1.7 MB).

Spotlight on 2 - Euroization in Montenegro (.pdf) (721 kB).

Appendix (.pdf) (1 MB).