Quarterly Monitor of economic trends and policies in Serbia April - June 2006

Macroeconomic policy moved toward targeted inflation while fiscal policy went on the election trail this summer. Inflation did not gather speed thanks to administrative price controls as well as a combination of circumspect fiscal and monetary policy measures. The dimensions of the fiscal expansion will depend largely on the tradeoff, as perceived by policymakers, between the election gain and the price - to be paid largely after the elections - of the policy mix. The NBS has not yet publicly and clearly committed itself to an inflation target. But for the first time this summer it acted as if it was ready to pay whatever price necessary to reduce the inflationary growth of credit. Indeed, it was so tough that the growth of short-term credit to companies in July was negative. Over the longer term, pre-election policies need not be too costly. Once they take office, new governments as a rule quickly tighten fiscal policy, scale back the macroeconomic framework to a sustainable level, and allow the economy to grow, albeit somewhat more slowly. Will this be the case with our domestic electoral fiscal cycle?

Quarterly Montor, complete document, download (.pdf) (6.67 MB):

Quarterly Monitor by the chapters, download:

Impressum, Table of Contents, From the Editor (.pdf) (366 kb).

Trends Review (.pdf) (323 kb).

Trends - International Environment (.pdf) (286 kb).

Trends - Prices Exchange Rate (.pdf) (776 kB).

Trends - Employment Wages (.pdf) (412 kB).

Trends - Economic Growth (.pdf) (599 kB).

Trends - BOP & Foreign Trade (.pdf) (705 kB).

Trends - Fiscal Flows & Policy (.pdf) (729 kB).

Trends - Monetary Flows & Policy (.pdf) (1.28 MB).

Trends - Financial Markets (.pdf) (432 kB).

Spotlight 1(.pdf) (610 kB).

Spotlight 2 (.pdf) (313 kB).

Spotlight 3 (.pdf) (803 kB).

Appendix (.pdf) (420 kB).